Lecture

The Mutual Fund Theorem and Covariance Pricing Theorems

This module continues the exploration of CAPM, emphasizing:

  • The Mutual Fund Theorem and its implications for asset allocation.
  • Understanding optimal diversification in investment portfolios.
  • The covariance pricing theorem and its impact on asset valuation.

Students will engage with the practical applications of these theories in real-world investment scenarios.


Course Lectures
  • Why Finance?
    John Geanakoplos

    This module introduces the historical context and evolution of financial theory, emphasizing its distinct beginnings in business schools separate from economics. Key topics include:

    • The efficient markets hypothesis and its critique post-financial crisis.
    • Questions that standard financial theory addresses effectively.
    • The leverage cycle and its implications for financial crises.

    The module concludes with a practical experiment illustrating the conditions under which the efficient markets hypothesis holds true.

  • This module focuses on economic models and their significance in understanding equilibrium. It covers:

    • The definition and role of economic models in counterfactual reasoning.
    • The supply and demand model, tracing its roots to ancient thinkers.
    • Modern general economic equilibrium theory and its application to financial equilibrium.

    By the end of this module, students will appreciate how these models lay the groundwork for future financial theories.

  • Computing Equilibrium
    John Geanakoplos

    This module aims to make economic decisions clearer through the lens of equilibrium price and allocation calculations. It includes:

    • Practical examples demonstrating equilibrium calculations.
    • Methods to compute equilibrium in simple economies using computers.
    • Future applications in financial economies involving stocks and bonds.

    Students will learn to visualize economic interactions and their implications for financial markets.

  • Efficiency, Assets, and Time
    John Geanakoplos

    This module reviews the evolution of economists' justifications for free markets, highlighting:

    • The competitive allocation and its relation to utility maximization.
    • Development of Pareto efficiency and its critiques.
    • Key contributions from economists like Edgeworth and Arrow-Debreu.

    Additionally, the module introduces Irving Fisher’s ideas on incorporating time and assets into economic models, setting the stage for further financial analysis.

  • This module examines the historical context of interest, discussing:

    • The philosophical debates surrounding interest and its implications.
    • Irving Fisher's groundbreaking model of financial equilibrium.
    • How trade between future and present goods parallels asset investments.

    By understanding interest as a relative price, students will challenge long-held beliefs and gain insights into market dynamics.

  • This module builds upon Fisher's theories by exploring the interplay between:

    • Productivity and interest rates.
    • Individual patience and its impact on economic decisions.
    • Wealth redistribution and its effects on interest rates.

    Students will engage with Fisher's famous examples to understand the broader implications of these relationships in economic contexts.

  • In this module, the role of collateral in financial transactions is examined, including:

    • Shakespeare’s economic insights on collateral and finance.
    • The definition and explanation of basic financial instruments using present value.
    • Understanding the significance of mortgages, coupon bonds, annuities, and perpetuities.

    Students will learn how historical perspectives inform modern financial practices.

  • This module discusses Yale's budgeting challenges and investment performance measurement, covering:

    • The deferred maintenance problem faced by Yale.
    • Strategies for addressing unexpected large expenditures.
    • Evaluating investment performance through yield measures.

    By analyzing real-world scenarios, students will develop practical financial management skills.

  • Dynamic Present Value
    John Geanakoplos

    This module transitions from present values to dynamic present values, examining:

    • The evolution of interest rates along the forward curve.
    • Methods for computing present values through backward induction.
    • Applications to trading strategies and understanding mortgages.

    Additionally, the module addresses the implications of present value analysis on Social Security.

  • Social Security
    John Geanakoplos

    This module continues the Social Security discussion, focusing on:

    • The system's creation and its current financial challenges.
    • Contrasting perspectives from Democrats and Republicans.
    • Using present value analysis to clarify misconceptions surrounding Social Security's financial issues.

    Students will gain insights into the complexities of governmental financial programs.

  • This module introduces overlapping generations models, focusing on:

    • The necessity of believing in an enduring world for Social Security to function.
    • Augmenting classical models with land and its implications.
    • Reducing complex supply-demand equations to simpler forms.

    Students will explore how these models enhance the understanding of Social Security and the real rate of interest.

  • Demography and Asset Pricing
    John Geanakoplos

    This module investigates the effects of demographic changes on interest rates and asset pricing, covering:

    • Mathematical exploration of demographic impacts using overlapping generations models.
    • Tobin's theory on population growth and Social Security.
    • Linking birth rates to stock market levels through statistical analysis.

    Students will gain a deeper understanding of the interplay between demographics and financial markets.

  • This module introduces uncertainty in financial markets, emphasizing:

    • The necessity of incorporating uncertainty into economic models.
    • Key statistical concepts like expectation, variance, and covariance.
    • Application of diversification to mitigate risk exposure.

    Students will also learn about conditional expectations and their relevance to interest rate uncertainty.

  • This module examines the rational expectations hypothesis, discussing:

    • How traders assess uncertain future payoffs and their implications for asset valuation.
    • Empirical tests of the hypothesis using weather forecasts and orange prices.
    • The impact of discount rates on long-term asset values through hyperbolic discounting.

    Students will grapple with the complexities of expectations and their influence on financial decision-making.

  • This module focuses on backward induction and optimal stopping times, including:

    • Calculating implied default probabilities using duality tricks.
    • Exploring backward induction in various optimal stopping problems.
    • Understanding the value of the option to continue in different scenarios.

    Students will apply these concepts to practical economic situations, enhancing their analytical skills.

  • This module explores callable bonds and mortgage prepayment options, covering:

    • The mechanics of callable bonds and their exercise strategies.
    • Calculating the borrower's optimal strategy for exercising options.
    • The significance of prepayment options in fixed-rate mortgages.

    By analyzing real data, students will understand the complexities of mortgage lending and investor behavior.

  • This module discusses modeling mortgage prepayments, focusing on:

    • The structure of mortgages and their collateral backing.
    • Contingent forecasting versus non-contingent forecasts in economic predictions.
    • Agent-based modeling to forecast individual behaviors in prepayment scenarios.

    Students will gain insight into the risks associated with mortgages and strategies for effective forecasting.

  • This module presents a personal narrative about the mortgage market, detailing:

    • The professor's journey from academia to mortgage securities.
    • The evolution of collateralized mortgage obligations and hedge fund strategies.
    • Insights into investment banking and the prime/subprime mortgage markets.

    By sharing personal experiences, the professor provides a unique perspective on the mortgage industry.

  • Dynamic Hedging
    John Geanakoplos

    This module discusses dynamic hedging strategies, addressing:

    • Using models to forecast mortgage prepayments and mitigate risks.
    • The challenges of hedging against numerous potential interest rate scenarios.
    • Applying dynamic hedging principles to effectively manage mortgage risks.

    Students will learn practical applications of dynamic hedging in real-world financial scenarios.

  • This module continues the discussion on dynamic hedging, focusing on:

    • The concept of marking to market in risk management.
    • Calculating the average life of bonds for appropriate hedging.
    • Understanding how dynamic hedging simplifies complex scenarios.

    Students will gain insights into effective measures for mitigating financial risk in dynamic environments.

  • This module introduces risk aversion concepts in financial theory, covering:

    • The Bernoulli brothers' contributions to the understanding of risk aversion.
    • The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and its implications for asset pricing.
    • How the model informs modern portfolio management strategies.

    Students will explore the intersections of risk, return, and investment strategies in finance.

  • This module continues the exploration of CAPM, emphasizing:

    • The Mutual Fund Theorem and its implications for asset allocation.
    • Understanding optimal diversification in investment portfolios.
    • The covariance pricing theorem and its impact on asset valuation.

    Students will engage with the practical applications of these theories in real-world investment scenarios.

  • This module concludes the course by addressing the implications of CAPM, focusing on:

    • Testing the CAPM theory through empirical analysis.
    • Evaluating fund managers' performance based on risk-return metrics.
    • Revisiting Social Security in light of CAPM insights and potential privatization strategies.

    Students will synthesize their learning to understand how financial theories apply to policy debates.

  • This module introduces the Leverage Cycle theory, discussing:

    • The relationship between collateral requirements and asset prices.
    • How looser collateral leads to increased leverage and rising asset prices.
    • Examining the subprime mortgage crisis through the lens of the Leverage Cycle.

    Students will analyze how this theory fills gaps left by traditional financial theories.

  • This module concludes the course by exploring the dynamics of financial crises through the Leverage Cycle, including:

    • Mathematical examples illustrating the predictions of Leverage Cycle theory.
    • The role of impatience and volatility in financial markets.
    • Identifying key elements that contribute to financial crises.

    Students will understand how to monitor and regulate leverage to mitigate future crises.