Lecture

Utilities, Endowments, and Equilibrium

This module focuses on economic models and their significance in understanding equilibrium. It covers:

  • The definition and role of economic models in counterfactual reasoning.
  • The supply and demand model, tracing its roots to ancient thinkers.
  • Modern general economic equilibrium theory and its application to financial equilibrium.

By the end of this module, students will appreciate how these models lay the groundwork for future financial theories.


Course Lectures
  • Why Finance?
    John Geanakoplos

    This module introduces the historical context and evolution of financial theory, emphasizing its distinct beginnings in business schools separate from economics. Key topics include:

    • The efficient markets hypothesis and its critique post-financial crisis.
    • Questions that standard financial theory addresses effectively.
    • The leverage cycle and its implications for financial crises.

    The module concludes with a practical experiment illustrating the conditions under which the efficient markets hypothesis holds true.

  • This module focuses on economic models and their significance in understanding equilibrium. It covers:

    • The definition and role of economic models in counterfactual reasoning.
    • The supply and demand model, tracing its roots to ancient thinkers.
    • Modern general economic equilibrium theory and its application to financial equilibrium.

    By the end of this module, students will appreciate how these models lay the groundwork for future financial theories.

  • Computing Equilibrium
    John Geanakoplos

    This module aims to make economic decisions clearer through the lens of equilibrium price and allocation calculations. It includes:

    • Practical examples demonstrating equilibrium calculations.
    • Methods to compute equilibrium in simple economies using computers.
    • Future applications in financial economies involving stocks and bonds.

    Students will learn to visualize economic interactions and their implications for financial markets.

  • Efficiency, Assets, and Time
    John Geanakoplos

    This module reviews the evolution of economists' justifications for free markets, highlighting:

    • The competitive allocation and its relation to utility maximization.
    • Development of Pareto efficiency and its critiques.
    • Key contributions from economists like Edgeworth and Arrow-Debreu.

    Additionally, the module introduces Irving Fisher’s ideas on incorporating time and assets into economic models, setting the stage for further financial analysis.

  • This module examines the historical context of interest, discussing:

    • The philosophical debates surrounding interest and its implications.
    • Irving Fisher's groundbreaking model of financial equilibrium.
    • How trade between future and present goods parallels asset investments.

    By understanding interest as a relative price, students will challenge long-held beliefs and gain insights into market dynamics.

  • This module builds upon Fisher's theories by exploring the interplay between:

    • Productivity and interest rates.
    • Individual patience and its impact on economic decisions.
    • Wealth redistribution and its effects on interest rates.

    Students will engage with Fisher's famous examples to understand the broader implications of these relationships in economic contexts.

  • In this module, the role of collateral in financial transactions is examined, including:

    • Shakespeare’s economic insights on collateral and finance.
    • The definition and explanation of basic financial instruments using present value.
    • Understanding the significance of mortgages, coupon bonds, annuities, and perpetuities.

    Students will learn how historical perspectives inform modern financial practices.

  • This module discusses Yale's budgeting challenges and investment performance measurement, covering:

    • The deferred maintenance problem faced by Yale.
    • Strategies for addressing unexpected large expenditures.
    • Evaluating investment performance through yield measures.

    By analyzing real-world scenarios, students will develop practical financial management skills.

  • Dynamic Present Value
    John Geanakoplos

    This module transitions from present values to dynamic present values, examining:

    • The evolution of interest rates along the forward curve.
    • Methods for computing present values through backward induction.
    • Applications to trading strategies and understanding mortgages.

    Additionally, the module addresses the implications of present value analysis on Social Security.

  • Social Security
    John Geanakoplos

    This module continues the Social Security discussion, focusing on:

    • The system's creation and its current financial challenges.
    • Contrasting perspectives from Democrats and Republicans.
    • Using present value analysis to clarify misconceptions surrounding Social Security's financial issues.

    Students will gain insights into the complexities of governmental financial programs.

  • This module introduces overlapping generations models, focusing on:

    • The necessity of believing in an enduring world for Social Security to function.
    • Augmenting classical models with land and its implications.
    • Reducing complex supply-demand equations to simpler forms.

    Students will explore how these models enhance the understanding of Social Security and the real rate of interest.

  • Demography and Asset Pricing
    John Geanakoplos

    This module investigates the effects of demographic changes on interest rates and asset pricing, covering:

    • Mathematical exploration of demographic impacts using overlapping generations models.
    • Tobin's theory on population growth and Social Security.
    • Linking birth rates to stock market levels through statistical analysis.

    Students will gain a deeper understanding of the interplay between demographics and financial markets.

  • This module introduces uncertainty in financial markets, emphasizing:

    • The necessity of incorporating uncertainty into economic models.
    • Key statistical concepts like expectation, variance, and covariance.
    • Application of diversification to mitigate risk exposure.

    Students will also learn about conditional expectations and their relevance to interest rate uncertainty.

  • This module examines the rational expectations hypothesis, discussing:

    • How traders assess uncertain future payoffs and their implications for asset valuation.
    • Empirical tests of the hypothesis using weather forecasts and orange prices.
    • The impact of discount rates on long-term asset values through hyperbolic discounting.

    Students will grapple with the complexities of expectations and their influence on financial decision-making.

  • This module focuses on backward induction and optimal stopping times, including:

    • Calculating implied default probabilities using duality tricks.
    • Exploring backward induction in various optimal stopping problems.
    • Understanding the value of the option to continue in different scenarios.

    Students will apply these concepts to practical economic situations, enhancing their analytical skills.

  • This module explores callable bonds and mortgage prepayment options, covering:

    • The mechanics of callable bonds and their exercise strategies.
    • Calculating the borrower's optimal strategy for exercising options.
    • The significance of prepayment options in fixed-rate mortgages.

    By analyzing real data, students will understand the complexities of mortgage lending and investor behavior.

  • This module discusses modeling mortgage prepayments, focusing on:

    • The structure of mortgages and their collateral backing.
    • Contingent forecasting versus non-contingent forecasts in economic predictions.
    • Agent-based modeling to forecast individual behaviors in prepayment scenarios.

    Students will gain insight into the risks associated with mortgages and strategies for effective forecasting.

  • This module presents a personal narrative about the mortgage market, detailing:

    • The professor's journey from academia to mortgage securities.
    • The evolution of collateralized mortgage obligations and hedge fund strategies.
    • Insights into investment banking and the prime/subprime mortgage markets.

    By sharing personal experiences, the professor provides a unique perspective on the mortgage industry.

  • Dynamic Hedging
    John Geanakoplos

    This module discusses dynamic hedging strategies, addressing:

    • Using models to forecast mortgage prepayments and mitigate risks.
    • The challenges of hedging against numerous potential interest rate scenarios.
    • Applying dynamic hedging principles to effectively manage mortgage risks.

    Students will learn practical applications of dynamic hedging in real-world financial scenarios.

  • This module continues the discussion on dynamic hedging, focusing on:

    • The concept of marking to market in risk management.
    • Calculating the average life of bonds for appropriate hedging.
    • Understanding how dynamic hedging simplifies complex scenarios.

    Students will gain insights into effective measures for mitigating financial risk in dynamic environments.

  • This module introduces risk aversion concepts in financial theory, covering:

    • The Bernoulli brothers' contributions to the understanding of risk aversion.
    • The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and its implications for asset pricing.
    • How the model informs modern portfolio management strategies.

    Students will explore the intersections of risk, return, and investment strategies in finance.

  • This module continues the exploration of CAPM, emphasizing:

    • The Mutual Fund Theorem and its implications for asset allocation.
    • Understanding optimal diversification in investment portfolios.
    • The covariance pricing theorem and its impact on asset valuation.

    Students will engage with the practical applications of these theories in real-world investment scenarios.

  • This module concludes the course by addressing the implications of CAPM, focusing on:

    • Testing the CAPM theory through empirical analysis.
    • Evaluating fund managers' performance based on risk-return metrics.
    • Revisiting Social Security in light of CAPM insights and potential privatization strategies.

    Students will synthesize their learning to understand how financial theories apply to policy debates.

  • This module introduces the Leverage Cycle theory, discussing:

    • The relationship between collateral requirements and asset prices.
    • How looser collateral leads to increased leverage and rising asset prices.
    • Examining the subprime mortgage crisis through the lens of the Leverage Cycle.

    Students will analyze how this theory fills gaps left by traditional financial theories.

  • This module concludes the course by exploring the dynamics of financial crises through the Leverage Cycle, including:

    • Mathematical examples illustrating the predictions of Leverage Cycle theory.
    • The role of impatience and volatility in financial markets.
    • Identifying key elements that contribute to financial crises.

    Students will understand how to monitor and regulate leverage to mitigate future crises.